Municipal Economic Development and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21664/2238-8869.2026v15i2.8198Palabras clave:
climate change, local development, multilevel modelsResumen
Climate change is closely linked to the economic and social dynamics of countries and subnational units. In general, studies analyzing this relationship tend to use nation-states as their unit of observation. This study aims to contribute to the literature by focusing on a more decentralized unit, Brazilian municipalities. Brazil is a country of continental dimensions and heterogeneity in development patterns across its states. The objective of this article is to analyze how the economic development of Brazilian municipalities affects greenhouse gas emissions, considering the disparity in subnational economic dynamism across the country. The methodology employed was a two-level multilevel model. Since the data was organized by municipal CO2e emissions nested within each state, except for the Federal District, this justified the choice of a multilevel modeling approach. The results indicate that economic complexity, Gross Domestic Product, level of social vulnerability, deforestation, and the Sebrae Index of Local Development at the state level were significant variables in explaining CO2e emissions in Brazilian municipalities. Additionally, the growth rate of municipal emissions was lower in states that already had high average emissions compared to those with low average emissions. It is concluded that the state in which a municipality is located matters when analyzing the relationship between economic complexity and CO2e emissions.
Citas
Alkimim A, Clarke KC. 2018. Land use change and the carbon debt for sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil. Land Use Policy 72:65–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.12.039
Ambrósio G, Cunha DA, Pires MV, Costa L, Faria RM, Gurgel AC. 2021. Human Development, Greenhou-se Gas Emissions and Sub-National Mitigation Burdens: A Brazilian Perspective. Discover Sustainability 2(1):35. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-021-00044-9
Beg N, Morlot JC, Davidson O, Afrane-Okesse Y, Tyani L, Denton F, Sokona Y, Thomas JP, La Rovere EL, Parikh K, Rahman AA. 2002. Linkages between climate change and sustainable development. Climate Policy 2(2–3):129–144. https://doi.org/10.3763/cpol.2002.0216
Boleti E, Garas A, Kyriakou A, Lapatinas A. 2021. Economic Complexity and Environmental Performance: Evidence from a World Sample. Environmental Modeling & Assessment 26(3):251–270. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-021-09750-0
Bordonal RO, Lal R, Aguiar DA, Figueiredo EB, Perillo LI, Adami M, Rudorff BFT, Scala NL. 2015. Gree-nhouse gas balance from cultivation and direct land use change of recently established sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) plantation in south-central Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 55:547–556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.137
Can M, Gozgor G. 2017. The impact of economic complexity on carbon emissions: evidence from France. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International 24(19):16364–16370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9219-7
Carvalho SS. 2013. A relação entre crescimento e o meio ambiente: uma reavaliação da curva de Kuznets ambiental. Ipea [serial on the Internet]. Available from: https://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/2367
Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional (CEDEPLAR). 2025. DataViva [database on the Internet]. Available from: https://www.dataviva.info/pt/
Chein F, Lemos MB, Assunção JJ. 2007. Desenvolvimento desigual: evidências para o Brasil. Revista Brasilei-ra de Economia 61(3). https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-71402007000300002
Climate Watch. 2025. Global Historical Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions [database on the Internet]. Available from: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions?end_year=2020&start_year=1990
Dawkins CJ. 2003. Regional Development Theory: Conceptual Foundations, Classic Works, and Recent Developments. Journal of Planning Literature 18(2):131–172. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0885412203254706
Fávero LP, Belfiore P. 2017. Manual de Análise de Dados: Estatística e Modelagem Multivariada com Excel, SPSS e STATA. Elsevier, São Paulo.
Fávero LPL, Confortini D. 2010. Modelos multinível de coeficientes aleatórios e os efeitos firma, setor e tempo no mercado acionário Brasileiro. Pesquisa Operacional 30:703–727. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-74382010000300011
Ferreira-Paiva L, Suela AGL, Alfaro-Espinoza ER, Cardona-Casas NA, Valente DSM, Neves RVA. 2022. A k-means-based-approach to analyze the emissions of GHG in the municipalities of MATOPIBA region, Brazil. IEEE Latin America Transactions 20(11):2339–2345. https://doi.org/10.1109/TLA.2022.9904758
Furtado C. 1977. Formação econômica do Brasil. Nacional, São Paulo.
Garofalo DF, Novaes RML, Pazianotto RAA, Maciel VG, Brandão M, Shimbo JZ, Folegatti-Matsuura MIS. 2022. Land-use change CO2 emissions associated with agricultural products at municipal level in Brazil. Journal of Cleaner Production 364:132549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132549
Getis A, Ord JK. 1992. The Analysis of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics. Geographical Analysis 24(3):189–206. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1992.tb00261.x
Grossman GM, Krueger AB. 1995. Economic Growth and the Environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(2):353–377. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443
Hair Jr JF, Fávero LP. 2019. Multilevel modeling for longitudinal data: concepts and applications. RAUSP Management Journal 54(4):459–489. https://doi.org/10.1108/RAUSP-04-2019-0059
Hausmann R, Hidalgo CA (orgs.). 2013. The atlas of economic complexity: mapping paths to prosperity. Updated edition, The MIT Press, Cambridge.
Hidalgo CA. 2021. Economic complexity theory and applications. Nature Reviews Physics 3(2):92–113. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-020-00275-1
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). 2022. Amazônia Legal [serial on the Internet]. Avai-lable from: https://www.ibge.gov.br/geociencias/informacoes-ambientais/geologia/15819-amazonia-legal.html
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). 2024. Produto Interno Bruto – PIB [database on the Internet]. Available from: https://www.ibge.gov.br/explica/pib.php
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. 2024. TerraBrasilis: TerraBrasilis PRODES (Desmatamento) [database on the Internet]. Available from: http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/dashboard/deforestation/biomes/cerrado/increments
Li S, Siu YW, Zhao G. 2021. Driving Factors of CO2 Emissions: Further Study Based on Machine Learning. Frontiers in Environmental Science 9 [serial on the Internet]. Available from: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2021.721517
Liang C, Wang Q. 2023. The relationship between total factor productivity and environmental quality: a sustainable future with innovation input. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 191:122521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122521
Macedo FC, Porto LR. 2020. Um olhar territorial para o mercado de trabalho no Brasil (2002-2018). Boletim Regional, Urbano e Ambiental 24 [serial on the Internet]. Available from: https://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/handle/11058/10677
Mealy P, Teytelboym A. 2022. Economic complexity and the green economy. Research Policy 51(8):103948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2020.103948
Metz B, Kok M. 2011. Integrating development and climate policies. Integrating development and climate policies 8(2). https://doi.org/10.3763/cpol.2008.0523
Neagu O, Teodoru MC. 2019. The Relationship between Economic Complexity, Energy Consumption Structure and Greenhouse Gas Emission: Heterogeneous Panel Evidence from the EU Countries. Sustainabi-lity 11(2):497. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020497
Neto AM. 2014. Desigualdades Regionais no Brasil: Características e Tendências Recentes. Boletim Regional, Urbano e Ambiental 9.
Observatório do Clima. 2025a. Emissões Totais – Sistema de Estimativa de Emissão de Gases (SEEG) [database on the Internet]. Available from: https://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/total_emission
Observatório do Clima. 2025b. Brasil 2045: Construindo uma potência ambiental [monograph on the Inter-net]. Available from: https://monitor2045.oc.eco.br/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Brasil-2045-Olhares-Regionais-BR.pdf
Pietrafesa PA, Pietrafesa JP, Vilela LC. 2023. Amazon development and climate change: socioeconomic analysis. Global Dialogue 6(1):165–183. https://doi.org/10.53660/GDIA.118.114
Rezende EH, Santos FG, Silva CS, Stein AQ, Romero JP. 2023. Complexidade econômica e emprego formal no Brasil: evidências de regressão produtiva entre 2006 e 2020. Boletim Mercado de Trabalho (76):61–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.38116/bmt76/nt2
Romero J, Freitas E, Silveira F, Britto G, Cimini F, Jayme G. 2022. Economic complexity and regional eco-nomic development: evidence from Brazil. In: EAEPE, Online Proceedings; 2022. p. 1–22.
Romero JP, Gramkow C. 2021. Economic complexity and greenhouse gas emissions. World Development 139:105317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105317
Romero JP, Silveira F. 2019. Mudança estrutural e complexidade econômica: identificando setores promis-sores para o desenvolvimento dos estados brasileiros. In: Alternativas para o desenvolvimento brasileiro: Novos horizontes para a mudança estrutural com igualdade. Nações Unidas, Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL), Santiago.
Schmidt Dubeux CB, Rovere ELL. 2007. Local perspectives in the control of greenhouse gas emissions: The case of Rio de Janeiro. Cities 24(5):353–364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2007.01.012
Serviço Brasileiro de Apoio às Micro e Pequenas Empresas (Sebrae). 2023. Índice Sebrae de Desenvolvi-mento Econômico Local [database on the Internet]. Available from: https://www.isdel-sebrae.com/acervo
Silveira AM, Victoria RL, Ballester MV, Camargo PB, Martinelli LA, Piccolo MC. 2000. Simulação dos efeitos das mudanças do uso da terra na dinâmica de carbono no solo na bacia do rio Piracicaba. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira 35(2):389–399. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0100-204X2000000200018
Snijders TAB, Bosker RJ. 2011. Multilevel Analysis: An Introduction to Basic and Advanced Multilevel Modeling. Second edition, SAGE Publications Ltd, Cham.
Soares TC, Cunha DA. 2019. Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa e Eficiência Ambiental no Brasil. Nova Economia 29(2):429–458. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0103-6351/3795
Tabachnick B, Fidell L. 2018. Using Multivariate Statistics. 7th edition, Pearson, New York.
Talanoa Políticas Climáticas. 2024. Política Climática por Inteiro 2024: Um panorama das políticas climáti-cas do Brasil [monograph on the Internet]. Available from: https://politicaporinteiro.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/00_PCPInteiro-2024-Digital-20241226.pdf
Theis IM. 2022. Hic et nunc: qual concepção de desenvolvimento quando se trata de desenvolvimento regional? Revista Brasileira de Estudos Urbanos e Regionais 24(1). https://doi.org/10.22296/2317-1529.rbeur.202224pt
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2026 Pedro Araújo Pietrafesa, Laumar Neves de Souza, José Paulo Pietrafesa
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.
Esta revista oferece acesso livre imediato ao seu conteúdo, seguindo o princípio de que disponibilizar gratuitamente o conhecimento científico ao público proporciona maior democratização mundial do conhecimento.
A partir da publicação realizada na revista os autores possuem copyright e direitos de publicação de seus artigos sem restrições.
A Revista Fronteiras: Journal of Social, Technological and Environmental Science segue os preceitos legais da licença Creative Commons - Atribuição-NãoComercial 4.0 Internacional.
