Analysis of Average Temperatures And Trends In Brazil: Applying CUSUM Graphic from 2000 to 2014
applying CUSUM graphic from 2000 to 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21664/2238-8869.2019v8i1.p169-184Keywords:
Cumulative Sum Chart, Air Temperature, Temperature Trends, Temperature ModelingAbstract
In recent decades the temperature trends are being confirmed earlier. To determine the temperature changes in Brazil, analysis of annual trends and seasons was carried out based on daily data from 187 weather stations, covering the period from 2000 to 2014. Trends were confirmed using the Cumulative Sum Chart, a method that notices the changes in series faster than others. The modeling of temperature was obtained by Multiple Regression and using Cluster Analysis, and through this it was possible to group weather stations. The observed trends confirmed oscillations in cooling, heating and, in some cases, cooling followed by heating. These main trends presented during the study period were from -15 to 0 in latitude. The region with the highest confirmation of inversions in temperature was the North, then Northeast. Heights below 500 meters presented higher trends. Regarding the seasons, autumn contributed significantly to the trends.
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